With the conclusion of UConn beating Southern California tonight, the two March Madness Final Fours are set. Between the 8 teams left, seven of them are 1-seeds, and the eighth is a 2-seed in UConn (who is probably the most 1 seed-like a 2-seed has ever been). Beyond that, the Elite 8’s were even chalkier. All four 1 seeds made the Elite 8 in both tournaments. Then three of the four 2-seeds for each tournament made it, with the eight teams in each being a 3-seed. Long story short, seven of the eight teams that theoretically should have made the Elite 8 actually did in both tournaments. Considering 68 teams enter both tournaments, the fact that seven of the best eight, and the other was still in the top twelve, were a part of the last eight, is not something one usually expects out of March Madness. I mean, it got the name March Madness for a reason. We expect upsets, Cinderella runs, and small market teams that for a couple weeks get the whole country behind them. This year however, that was very far from the case.
In this year’s Sweet 16’s, the highest seed in the women’s tournament was a 5-seed (there were 3 of them). The top four seeds are the ones that are in theory supposed to make it there, therefore this means that there were very few upsets. The highest in the men’s was a singular 10-seed, followed by a couple 6-seeds. Everything else went as it should. Even in the first round it was quite tame. The men’s tournament had only five double digit seeded winners, with the highest being two 12-seeds. The women’s tournament only had two double digit seeded winners, and they were both 10-seeds. The tournament is most notable for Cinderella stories like Harvard, UMBC, and Fairleigh Dickinson, the only 16-seeds to win a first round game. It is known for 15-seeded Saint Peter’s making it to the Elite 8, or 11-seeded Loyola Chicago making the Final Four, or even 7-seeded UConn winning the entire thing, yet none of that happened this year. In neither tournament, especially when this was expected to be one of the most competitive women’s fields we’ve had in a long time, everything has gone as expected, and I think we are all left a little confused.
So why may this be happening? The first and obvious answer which analysts and sportswriters alike love to go to is NIL and the transfer portal. The bigger schools have more money to pay the better players, so said players are more likely to go far from home if they’re getting paid a lot of money to do so. The transfer portal then allows schools to sweep up all the good players who they missed recruiting, but can actually play ball very well at the collegiate level. This prevents budding superstars at small mid-major schools from staying at said mid-major schools. The Power 5 sweeps up all the talent, and the rest of the country is left with the scraps. This is all very believable, however I am not quite buying that yet. This is too small of sample size. NIL and the transfer portal existed last year too, and we had the Final Four run of NC State, plus large upsets of 13-seeded Yale and 14-seeded Oakland. As for the women’s tournament, there was only one double digit seed to make it out of the first round and only one seed higher than a five to make it to the Sweet 16. My point being is that I don’t think we should be alarmed that the tournament doesn’t have as much madness as expected. If five years from now it consistently is chalk, then it will be time to worry. But until then, let’s just enjoy the good basketball in front of us and appreciate the great teams that we are getting to witness showcase their skills. Afterall, March only happens once a year.
Hey y’all! My name is Nate and I’m a statistics major with a sport and entertainment management minor. I am one half of the show “On the Bench” at WUSC. If you love sports, especially Gamecock athletics, you should give it a listen!