In my last blog post, I recapped the first edition of the 12-team college football playoff. I ended it however with a cliffhanger. What if instead of a committee the playoff was decided by numbers alone? Well I am here to answer that question with a simple formula. This formula being… RPI.
Now RPI stands for Rating Percentage Index, and is a commonly used metric throughout sports rankings. Up until a few years ago, college basketball used it heavily to rank teams and help decide the NCAA tournament. My first personal experience with it was it being used to rank my high school soccer team. The NCHSAA uses RPI to rank their teams and decide who makes the playoffs. It is a simple (WP * 0.3) + (OWP * 0.4) + (OOWP * 0.3) formula with WP being win percentage and O being opponents. I decided since I understand the formula well, why not build a code to replicate this with college football. After some days coding, it was completed and ran throughout the season. It is completely unbiased and solely based on numbers, so therefore would fix the possible bias problem amongst the committee. Here is how the 12-team playoff would’ve stacked up if the rankings were based on RPI.
- Oregon (1)
- Georgia (2)
- Boise State (5)
- Clemson (14)
- Notre Dame (3)
- Texas (4)
- Ohio State (6)
- Alabama (7)
- SMU (8)
- South Carolina (9)
- Penn State (10)
- Arizona State (16)
Yep. That is right. Based on RPI, South Carolina would’ve been in the playoffs. As would Alabama. Indiana and Tennessee would not. No argument of bias or double standards here, just numbers. As a student at the University of South Carolina, it is frustrating to see how close we truly were. Some metrics say we shouldn’t have made it, but others obviously do. Now if I am a Tennessee or Indiana fan reading this I am in uproar. Ultimately, not everyone will be happy no matter what. It is more about limiting the damages here. Which is why I am in favor of moving back to numeric based rankings. Similar to the BCS, but with the formula being public so everyone understands what the rankings are based on. No bias. Consistency throughout the year. And the best 12 teams at the end of the season making the College Football Playoff. One can only dream.
Hey y’all! My name is Nate and I’m a statistics major with a sport and entertainment management minor. I am one half of the show “On the Bench” at WUSC. If you love sports, especially Gamecock athletics, you should give it a listen!